EUR/CHF has seen strong fluctuations in recent weeks. After a sharp rally in early March, the exchange rate reversed just as quickly and dropped back to levels seen in early March. The pair surged from 0.9330 to 0.9660 between February 28 and March 14, only to fall back to 0.9360 by April 4. This inverted V-pattern signals a volatility burst. For April and possibly well into May, EUR/CHF is now likely to trade in a sideways range as bulls and bears fight for direction. The most probable range: between 0.9370 and 0.9520.
From Fiscal Euphoria to Risk-Off
The rally in early March was driven by fiscal optimism. German lawmakers and EU politicians pushed forward a massive public investment campaign. Germany led the way with a €500 billion plan to modernize infrastructure and expand military capabilities. Other EU countries also committed to higher defense spending. The market viewed this as a potential turning point in EU fiscal policy, fueling demand for the euro and pushing EUR/CHF to a local high of 0.9660 by March 14.
But the surge was short-lived. As the Trump Administration introduced more and more tariffs, market sentiment shifted. Fears of a global recession returned. Risk aversion spiked, and investors sought safety in the Swiss franc. EUR/CHF dropped sharply, falling to 0.9360 on April 4 — its lowest level since March 4.
Inverted V-Pattern Signals Balance of Power
The structure of this move — a fast rally followed by a fast decline — forms what price action traders call an inverted V-pattern. This kind of move often signals a temporary burst in volatility rather than a sustained trend. It usually marks the beginning of a consolidation phase. After such sharp two-way moves, neither side is clearly in control. Bulls and bears are equally strong.
The bears want to extend the sharp drop from the 0.9660 high and shape it into a bear channel. Their goal is to keep pressure on the euro and drive EUR/CHF lower. Bulls, on the other hand, are trying to defend the recent low and build a new base. They want to stabilize price and form a bull channel, possibly aiming to regain the 0.96 area.
Trading Range Between 0.9370 and 0.9520 Likely
A period of sideways price action is now the most likely scenario. A trading range could develop and last for at least one week, possibly up to four. Based on the structure of recent price moves, the upper boundary of this range is likely to form near 0.9520 — a key mid-point of the inverted V-pattern and a level where selling pressure recently returned. The lower boundary is likely near 0.9370, just above the April 4 low.
This range reflects the current tug-of-war in the market: euro strength driven by fiscal spending optimism versus franc strength fueled by global uncertainty. Until one side gains clear control, EUR/CHF is expected to fluctuate within this band.
Outlook for April and May 2025
The broader outlook for EUR/CHF will depend on whether the global risk environment continues to deteriorate and whether EU fiscal initiatives translate into real economic momentum. If trade tensions escalate further, the franc could see more demand, keeping EUR/CHF under pressure. On the other hand, if investor focus shifts back to EU growth potential and fiscal expansion, the euro might recover.
But for now, the most likely path is sideways: a trading range between 0.9370 and 0.9520 as bulls and bears wait for the next catalyst.
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