USD/CHF Crashes as Trump Tariffs Trigger Treasury Selloff and Swiss Franc Surge
April 11, 2025The USD/CHF exchange rate has plunged to its lowest intraday level since September 2011, breaking below 0.83 in early April. The collapse is part of a broader market reaction to President Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda — and the deepening selloff in U.S. Treasuries that followed.
After Trump’s inauguration in January, the dollar began a steady slide against the Swiss franc. But the real shock came on February 1, when Trump announced sweeping tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada. Markets recoiled. USD/CHF gapped down as traders priced in global retaliation, supply chain disruption, and stagflation risks.
Then came the bond market’s turn. The tariffs ignited fears of higher deficits, persistent inflation, and eroding foreign demand for U.S. debt. Long-term Treasury yields spiked. Liquidity deteriorated. The U.S. bond market — a cornerstone of global finance — was suddenly outside investors’ comfort zone.
Between February and late March, USD/CHF dropped from 0.87 to 0.84. Then came the liquidity crunch.
By March 31, the dollar entered free fall. As 10-year yields soared, the market saw a sharp deterioration in depth and pricing in the Treasury complex. Investors dumped dollars and ran to traditional havens. The Swiss franc surged, and USD/CHF plunged to 0.8220, its lowest in over a decade.
This isn’t just about tariffs — it’s about confidence. The combination of policy risk, bond market instability, and capital flight is driving a major re-pricing of dollar assets. The Swiss franc is absorbing the shock.
Now all eyes are on the Swiss National Bank. Will it intervene to prevent further CHF strength? Or will the franc continue to climb as U.S. credibility is questioned?
USD/CHF Outlook 2025
The USD/CHF meltdown may just be the first warning shot in a much larger global adjustment. The underlying drivers — persistent U.S. fiscal stress, rising long-term Treasury yields, and deepening investor skepticism — remain in place.
As capital continues to flee U.S. assets, the dollar’s downtrend against the Swiss franc looks far from over. Unless there is a coordinated policy response or a reversal in trade and bond market dynamics, USD/CHF is on track to test and potentially break below the critical 0.80 level — a threshold not seen since the global financial crisis.
The current environment favors further franc strength as global capital seeks safety amid U.S. policy uncertainty.
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